2020 - Second Act

Six months ago, for my last post of 2019, I posted about the unknowability of the future, about the fact that almost every moment of life brings the unexpected, despite that we’ve somehow conditioned ourselves into thinking that our lives are mapped out, predictable, and that very little changes, ever.

I tried of come into this year open and purposely sensitized to this constant precipitation of newness into my life. And while I think I did an okay job of it, have my expectations ever been overwhelmed! Never could I have imagined the degree to which 2020 would upset every aspect of Normal. One of the most surprising things about this upset is that as much as it has operated in my personal life, that part is dwarfed by the transformations that are occurring in the world around me.

I could never have foreseen that the entire world would react almost in tandem to a viral threat of COVID. I could never have imagined that entire economies would be shut down for the preservation of life – not in this capitalist environment! And I’d never have believed that a handful of police murders such as has afflicted minority populations throughout the history of America would send people into the streets worldwide and be a catalyst for change in financial, political and social institutions across the country.

And now I find myself wondering if this is merely the tip of an iceberg. Yes, we’re about to enter 2020 – Act II, and it could be a doozy! I’m not much a believer in conspiracy theories. And with all my belief in the unexpected, I would never claim the gift of prediction. But I do have thoughts about forces that may be at play, lines of dominoes that may topple, and possibilities to at least be aware of. Here are a few of them:

How will the world respond to the 2^nd and 3^rd waves of Covid – let alone to the next viral surprise, in two, five or ten years? Could we ever experience another intentional shut-down on the scale of what we’ve just experienced? And if those waves or the next virus do materialize, and we don’t shut down, what then?

One way to look at the shake-up of the economy in recent months is to see it as an unveiling of the mind-game that economies are. Haven’t we all be trained to think of the economy as very fragile, and of the absolute necessity of constant spending and growth in order to prevent collapse? And yet, the governments of the US and Canada have been able to crank out billions of dollars to individuals and companies to keep them afloat and to keep people contentedly at home. I don’t claim to understand all of the long-term ramifications of these actions, and I don’t doubt that they are serious. But one of two things must follow: Either the economy does collapse and we enter a period of chaos, or it doesn’t. And if it doesn’t, this is evidence that economies can have a lot more flexibility than we’ve been led to believe. Yes, wealth can be redistributed. Yes, vast sums can be spent to feed and house people when these are accepted as priorities. Which means that we could eliminate poverty, have truly excellent schools, hospitals and nursing homes. If only we reset our priorities – as COVID has forced us to – and marshal the will.

One of my biggest-picture concerns is about the continuing concentration of power and wealth in fewer and fewer hands. A good friend of mine firmly believes that we are about to experience a rapid shift in worldwide financial institutions away from actual currencies to digital currencies, as in Bitcoin. Among other things, this could obliterate the dollar’s dominance and it would likely concentrate wealth even further. With China possibly leading the way.

What about global, political power? America has been dominant for a solid century now. It ascended to that position pretty quickly, following the upheaval that was World War I, And it’s place of dominance could end as suddenly as did that of the Soviet Union thirty years ago. Many expect that China will be the next dominant world power. I wonder what China makes of the disorder that prevails in the U.S. these days – failing at managing COVID and engaged in intense self-scrutiny dues to the police murders and the reactions. Given Trump’s success at eroding internal confidence in almost every national institution, including media, the courts, the policing forces and of course, the political parties, how might China, or even Russia, be looking to take advantage of it? And with authoritarian governments clearly demonstrating a superior ability to ‘manage’ their populations in response to threats like COVID, and with their increasing suppression of dissenting voices, what is the future for democracies?

A temperature over 100% Fahrenheit was measured within the Arctic Circle this week! Never happened before, and scientists are saying that the effects of global warming may be coming much faster than previously imagined? Having seen that the worldwide effort to deal with COVID was at least possible, if not fully realized – is it possible that a full-scale technological response to global warming will ever be attempted? And is this the time?

Each of these areas of speculation will be impacted by the United States, in one way or another. And the US is facing possibly one of the most important Presidential elections in its history. How will that go? Personally, I’ve given up on viewing the current Republican leadership as anything more than a kleptocracy – a regime bent of gaining as much wealth and power as it can, for its own and those it deems worthy, before it is ultimately swept from power. It will make a huge difference whether this sweep occurs in 4 months or 4 years. What daring acts, moral and immoral, selfish and selfless, will be required to pull off a victory, either way? And what will be the fall-out?

I wish I was more optimistic about what is to come. I do remain hopeful. And more than ever before – even more so than when my generation was coming of age – my hope is with the young.

Social Delusioning?

Is anybody really social distancing? Maybe it depends on exactly what social distancing means. But if it actually means maintaining a distance of six feet from other people, my own experience is that no one is really doing it.

I don’t mean that people don’t intend to do it. Or that we intentionally invade one another’s space. It’s just that we’re lousy at it, and we aren’t wired that way.

This isn’t about pointing the finger. Because I confess that I don’t succeed either. Whatever my intentions, I just don’t manage to be around other people for very long before someone is in my space or I’m in theirs.

During the first couple of months of the COVID shutdown, I successfully avoided almost all physical meetings and gatherings. But in recent weeks, I’ve been to several. And I can confidently state that not a single one has been really successful from a social distancing perspective.

That is, if six feet really means six feet. I sometimes wonder if the stated recommendation is six feet because health officials share my own conclusion: that people are horrible at social distancing. Do you recall that the initial recommended distance was 2-3 feet? I wonder if this wasn’t inflated with the belief that most people would never meet the full standard but might meet it halfway?

My personal experience has gone something like this:

A meeting or gathering is planned. One party says, “Of course we’ll social distance,” and there is general agreement. At the moment of contact, there is a display of good intention: people sliding sideways to pass one another, taking awkward detours, often with arms spread wide, or leaning away from one another. But within a short period of time – usually ten to twenty minutes – people are walking or standing within a foot or two of one another and no one seems to notice. When I’ve mentioned it, the reactions range from mild surprise, to shrugs of resignation to denial that there have been any lapses at all.

And I get it. I even accept it. We humans aren’t wired to behave like this. We’re meant to huddle together. And it’s uncomfortable to back away from someone, to ignore an offered hand, or to tell someone they’re standing too close. I'm accepting that if I want to social distance, I just can't do meetings. It just bugs me that we pretend we’re doing what we aren’t.

But what led me to post this are signs that this ‘denial’ may be more deep-rooted and widespread than I’d thought. I was watching CBC’s The National the other night. And there was a light, upbeat feature about a graduation event for a group of high schoolers who missed the real thing. And of course they missed the real thing because of COVID concerns. But in the videos of the event everyone is standing in small clusters as though COVID is the least of anyone’s concern. And then, the CBC anchor explicitly says that parents and teachers were on hand to make sure that everyone observed social distancing! I was astonished. Hadn’t he seen the video that I just saw? There was clearly no social distancing happening at all.

Then, I saw something very similar again today. Another event, video clearly showing that social distancing was ignored, and a representative of the event stating that, “…of course, social distancing was observed.”

So I’m scratching my head a little. Is what I’m seeing a reflection of the resignation that may be setting in about social distancing? Acceptance that people are too weary of the shutdown to take it seriously anymore? It might be so. And this may not matter across most of Canada, where infection numbers have clearly and steadily been coming down. But if there’s another spike, as much of the U.S. is now experiencing, or a full blown 2^nd wave months from now, I wonder if it will even be possible to mandate a shutdown. It looks like there are many reasons that people will seize on, to stop trying to do something that we aren’t very good at anyway.

Seeking Info Warriors to CONFRONT the BASE!

I’m tired of preaching to the Choir. From now on I’m preaching to the Other Choir.

I’m very concerned – even fearful – about what might happen 5 months from now, on Election Day 2020. I’m convinced that Trump and his allies will do everything in their power to steal the election. If he doesn’t manage that, he will contest it, even as he challenged the legitimacy of the election he won – by disputing his loss of the popular vote.

We’ve been hearing all of our lives about what happened in Germany in the 30’s, and we’ve endlessly pondered ‘how it happened’, ‘how it shouldn’t have happened’ and we’ve vowed not to let it happen again!

Well, it’s happening right now. Trump has spent 4 years selling fear and conspiracy to his Base, attacking the credibility of the courts and the media and of the scientists and social scientists who are equipped to challenge the pillars on which his platforms rest. He’s actively attempting to militarize opposition to every form of social, political and cultural progress.

He is the fool who would be emperor. And he may succeed.

I’ve been fretting about how to fight it. Of course I will vote. And I’ll sign petitions, post my rants and make my puny financial contributions. Personally, I won’t be out in the streets – not yet anyway. But thanks and blessings to the young ones who are taking it there. It's Not Enough!

So what to do?

Yesterday, I took it to his base, and I aim to do so every day from now until the election, and maybe beyond.

I went to the Fox news website. I registered – using my real email address but a pseudonym. I found an article about the protests in Seattle and went to the comments below it.       Before weighing in, I read a few dozen of the comments already posted. This is a sampling of the types of statements I read:

-       -  Democrats want disorder. They plan it and support it. They are deliberately or unwittingly bringing about the destruction of the country.

-       -  Liberal policies are about making endless, spineless concessions to criminals, thugs, subversives and takers. They are all about giving our country away.

-       -   The left has no concern for law and order, the constitution or democracy.

-       -   Liberals and the left are against free speech.

-       -   Trump must be re-elected to restore order and dignity.

-       -   The protesters are all rioting, looting, destroying and making baseless complaints and demands.

-       -   There were many calls for crushing dissent with military force, and even a few suggestions that civilian, vigilante force might come to bear.

-       -   AND, there was also a smattering of left-leaning posters, but almost all of them were in ATTACK mode, rather than seeking to engage.

I began my comment by saying that just as it is false and defaming to suggest that all police are murderers like those who killed George Floyd, it was equally false and defaming to lump all protesters with rioters and looters. I said that most protesters were calling for regulation of police forces to ensure that police officers fairly abide by the law, for the safety and protection of all citizens. And that anyone who truly loved the country and the constitution should support these efforts.

And it was ON!

I spent the next two hours responding to comment after comment. Many were insulting, at least in part. I ignored or simply indicated the pointlessness of attacks. Many other responses were defensive, challenging or argumentative. These I rebutted and engaged. And a very few were by obviously thoughtful people who actually expressed their concerns, perhaps some ambivalence, and a desire for things to improve. These I acknowledged and attempted to nudge toward deeper awareness. These are the voices I will be actively seeking!

The exercise was exhausting but very satisfying. Did I convert anyone? Probably not. But I was able to present thoughtful, balanced views to puncture the image of an irresponsible, evil, ignorant left. I was able to directly challenge many statements with facts, to direct people to other sources of information, such as youtube videos, NPR or other websites, to logically refute statements about Trump and about Obama. I repeatedly referred to the constitution and to Christian principles, and to former Trump allies to make my points. All in all, I’m sure it was much more effective than merely sharing posts among you who are reading this, who probably already agree with me on most political and social issues.

I remind myself of my own experience of web-browsing, how I sometimes go to articles and comments to clarify my own thinking, to work through my own ambivalence about a matter, actively seeking helpful perspectives. I remind myself that Trump nation was founded by a lot of people who felt disenfranchised and who were disillusioned. Many of them joined with Trump reluctantly, or believing he was the lesser of two evils. And many of them are deathly afraid of voicing the concerns already worming in their hearts and guts, because of the vehement retaliation they fear.

So in my responses, I remained courteous. I didn’t attack anyone for expressing something stupid, racist, fascist or uninformed. Instead, I respectfully pointed out how or why they were in error, and where possible pointed out contradictions and logical fallacies in their arguments.

I’m requesting that any of you who share my concerns consider participating in this effort to erode Trumps base directly, through person-to-person communication. How powerful it might be if a whole crew of intelligent progressives engages MAGA nation head on, but calmly, politely, armed with facts, conceding points when appropriate, referring them to other sites, speeches documents that are easily found online, expressing understanding of their legitimate concerns but firmly and maturely confronting the many untruths and misconceptions? I think such an effort with change a few hearts, a few minds and a few votes here and there.

I’m not starting any formal organization here. In fact, I think it an effort that’s best carried out on an individual basis, person-to-person, without scripts or talking points except those that anyone might choose to prepare for themselves.

For those of you who’ve done some door-knocking, it will be very similar, except that it will be aimed directly at the heart of Trump-mania. You will encounter some nastiness, some insults, and maybe some threats (which is why I opted to start with a pseudonym, but I’m considering using my own name.) You will need to have ways to shake off the stress, probably to de-toxify. But we can all certainly support one another. And if there are even a few of you out there willing to make this commitment with me, we can figure out what that support looks like as we go along.

I’m committing myself to doing this for an hour a day, between now and election day. Please consider joining me. I believe that we could make a difference!

PLEASE CONSIDER SHARING!!!